The Coming Election from 35,000 Feet

The Coming Election from 35,000 Feet

Well, there are just 14 more days until the election. It is a momentous time, with historic implications. The polls are consistently showing Joe Biden with a significant lead. In fact, a recent Rasmussen Poll puts Biden’s lead at 12% over Trump which, if it proved accurate, would make this the largest Democrat victory since Franklin Roosevelt over Herbert Hoover in 1932. As a result, it might be possible for Trump supporters to get discouraged. Today, I want to give some perspective, so that Trump supporters remain hopeful, and finish the job by voting. Ask yourself. Does this feel like the leadup to a historic-level Democrat victory to you? Not me. Biden and Harris had a joint appearance in California a while back, and no one came!!! Earlier on the other side of the country, Trump had thousands. Let’s look at some facts. The polls are not accurate We must keep in mind that many of the polls are seriously flawed. They use flawed methods that fail to extract the information they are seeking, and they completely failed to predict Trump’s first election. It is more than possible that they are failing to predict his reelection. What’s more, polls are often used to try to influence elections by encouraging (but not too much) those who are winning so their people will come out and vote - and to discourage those who are losing, so they will not vote at all because they see it as a lost cause. But even the Biden campaign does not believe the polls. A recent internal Biden memo said, “don’t believe the polls!” They didn’t want their voters being overconfident. Nearly everyone believes the race is closer than the polls show. There are two polls that, unlike virtually every other poll, accurately predicted Trump’s election in 2016 and are predicting it again in 2020: Trafalgar and Helmut Norpoth. Norpoth’s model has accurately predicted every presidential race since 1920, with only two very close exceptions. Nothing close can be said of mainstream polls. There are other signs that suggest the mainstream polls are not accurate. Gallup just released a poll that asked the simple question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” 56% said yes, the highest number ever recorded by Gallup. And, the two most important issues were revealed to be the economy and law & order, two issues in which Trump is trusted more than Biden. There is a huge enthusiasm gap Then, look at the attendance at Trump appearances compared to Biden. In a one month stretch, attendance at Trump rallies and appearances totaled 250,000 compared to Biden’s 84. 84?!? That is the moral equivalent of no one! That is a disparity so colossal as to make any unbiased observer wonder if the polls are giving us accurate information. Then, thousands of boats in flotillas were sailing nearly every weekend this summer in support of Trump. That’s boats. Then there’re cars! In Miami, a mind-blowing 30,000 cars participated in a Latinos for Trump rally. 30,000 cars!!! How is that even possible? Can anyone imagine thousands of boats and cars, and hundreds of thousands of people turning out for Biden?!? Virtually no one is for Biden. They are all against Trump, and Biden is their only option. That cannot generate a Trump-like level of enthusiasm. The greater the enthusiasm, the greater the voter turnout. There is a new-voter registration advantage Then, there is the registration of new voters. Republicans have far outpaced Democrats in registering new voters – by tens of thousands of registrations, many in battleground states. Polls virtually never measure this variable. But the fact that Republicans have far out-paced Democrats in new voter registration suggests a strong addition to the “likely voter” pool for Republicans. Doug Schoen, a Democrat campaign consultant, wrote an article titled, “Why the Trump-Biden race is much closer than you think." His reasons were:
  • Some polls use disproportionately Democrat samples.
  • Polls typically sample registered voters as opposed to likely voters, which reduces accuracy.
  • Polls don’t measure the “enthusiasm gap.” Trump voters are vastly more enthusiastic then Biden voters.
  • Biden has failed to make inroads with non-white voters.
  • Democrats have moved rapidly and dramatically to the left, alienating traditional Democrat voters.
  • The voter registration gap.
  I say all this to help balance the impression given by the mainstream media, which I believe is a conscious effort to distort reality to discourage Trump voters. There is a strong possibility of potential of voter realignments Don’t believe the lie. Don’t be discouraged to vote. There are three demographics that could produce, not merely a Trump victory, but a Trump blowout. First is the black vote. Hillary Clinton took 92% of the black vote in 2016. This year, some projections put Trump’s share of the black vote at high as 14-20%. Tim Scott, a black Senator from South Carolina, says that if it turns out to be that high (14%), Trump will win. Second is the Latino vote. Historically about 30% of Hispanic Americans have voted Republican. Trump’s current approval rating among Hispanics is 40% and higher. If that translates into 40% of the votes, Trump will win. Third is the evangelical vote. Sadly, incomprehensibly, only half of evangelicals are registered to vote, and only half of them actually vote. While support for Trump is over 90% among evangelicals, the question is, “will they vote at a higher rate than normal?” We don’t know the answer to that, but on September 26, nearly 500,000 – half a million! – evangelicals gathered on the Mall in Washington D.C. for prayer. Nothing like that has ever happened before. Counting just the numbers, that bodes well for higher evangelical participation than normal. And if you factor in answered prayer, it suggests even more potential. If the evangelical vote turns out to be greater than historically true, Trump will win. Conclusion None of this means that Trump will win. But it is sufficient evidence to make one doubt the accuracy of the mainstream polls, which have been so embarrassingly inaccurate as to put their credibility into question. In fact, if you do not take into account the mainstream polls, then by every other marker, it suggests a Trump victory and possible blowout. So, the purpose of today's blog post - the purpose of bringing out all this information – is to convince you that it is absolutely possible that Trump can win. But, at the same time to point out, it all depends on all his supporters being faithful to put the final nails in the coffin by actually voting. If we truly take seriously the freedoms we currently have to walk closer with God and live better in life, freedoms which have been under relentless attack from the left, then we must take seriously our privilege and our responsibility to vote, and to vote for those who will stand for justice and righteousness, for those who will support our Constitutional rights and religious freedom. So, let’s continue to pray and encourage others to vote, and then let’s all vote against the depraved and evil Democrat Party platform, and vote for the Republican Party platform that will help advance justice and righteousness in our nation.
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